Iran and nuclear weapons

As tensions grow once again in the Middle East, it is generally assumed that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a nightmare. I am not so sure. Instead of isolating the country further and fuelling anti-Western sentiment, the international community should end its sanctions and seek to integrate Iran into the global economy. In particular, visa procedures should be streamlined and student exchanges promoted – measures that would make young Iranians feel welcome in the world.

Meanwhile, the United States should deploy a range of tactical nuclear weapons to the Persian Gulf while maintaining its strategic nuclear deterrent. It should also state, in no uncertain terms, that if Iran were ever to use nuclear weapons, the country would be annihilated within hours. Knowing this, any attack on, for instance, Israel would be utterly suicidal. At the same time, the fact that Iran possessed nuclear weapons would make it equally clear to the United States and others that they could never risk a pre-emptive strike. In essence: terror balance.

As tensions diminished through increased economic and cultural integration, Iran’s days as a theocracy might hopefully be numbered.

Do you agree? If not, why? Because of the assumption of rationality on the part of all parties? Or for some other reason? I freely admit that my understanding of Iran is limited. At the same time, current policies do not seem to be working either. A pre-emptive strike at this stage would clearly be a recipe for disaster – not the end of conflict, but the beginning of one that could drag on for decades, as a humiliated Iran would retaliate.

Overnight delay

After close to three weeks in Japan, I felt ready to return to Korea and the final preparations before teaching starts later this week. But United apparently wanted otherwise. When trying to check in for my evening flight to Seoul, I learned that the flight would have an “overnight delay” and that I would instead fly tomorrow morning at 10 am. These are the moments when I am really thankful for the academic flexibility which my job offers. I wonder how many Korean employers that will be happy with having their employees trapped at Narita on a Monday morning? Knowing this and the sheer desperation that this will cause to some of the other passengers, I quickly decided to not use my Star Gold standby list privileges but rather take it slow, spend a last night in Japan and reflect on the journey ahead.

Japan

The first time I travelled to Japan was in April last year. It was not long after the March 11 earthquake, but I still remember that Tokyo felt very normal and safe at the time. Since then, I have been back three times, and every time it feels like I am uncovering more and more of its secrets and its strange mix of stifling rigidity and childish playfulness.

It is a country that does not trust its government. And a government that does not trust its people. Instead of investing in its young people, Japanese society appears obsessed with saving for its retirement. In the next 50 years, Japan is expected to go from 127 to 87 million people as the fertility rate continues to fall.

From a Swedish perspective, it is not difficult to think of possible remedies: public childcare, openness to migration, and, not least, a radical change in terms of gender roles. But I am not here to give advice. At the same time, I wish I could show all this to conservative people back home, to make them understand that this is what you get if you kick downwards in society, if you do not listen to young women, and if you mistrust the future. The other day, Anna and I finished our paper on aspirational cosmopolitanism that we will present in Oregon in March. Writing it reminded me of how important that last part about the future really is; that it is only when we believe in an undetermined and open future that political change becomes possible. Basically, it is about believing that people can and will change – that simple transformative hope that has always separated the right from the left in politics.