Off-ramps

Much like in school, if Russia only gets attention when it misbehaves, it will continue to misbehave. As such, I have long argued the need for new positive narratives about Russia and the world, suggesting that Russia could for instance play a key role in advanced nuclear innovation and, as such, in solving climate change.

As the situation has unfolded in Ukraine, there is an even more urgent need for off-ramps or ways that Russia could step back without losing “face” (which is a concept that I know all about after my years in Asia). At the same time, any concessions to Russia will essentially reward it for its bad behaviour and, thus, inspire similar acts in the future.

One idea that has been floated is a ten-year moratorium for Ukrainian membership in NATO or a promise from the US that it will stop stationing offensive weapons along Russia's borders. Given how far the situation has already escalated, it is of course uncertain if such initiatives would be enough to pull Putin back from the brink.