Demands

Today, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov spelled out Russia’s demands for ending all hostilities. Even if accepting these terms would in a way vindicate Russia and its behaviour, I must say that I personally find the terms to be fairly reasonable, especially as they would give Putin an “off-ramp” that could bring an end to the conflict without further (nuclear) escalation.

In short, Russia is demanding that Ukraine becomes a neutral state and gives up its territorial claims for Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. Considering the predominately Russian population in these areas, and how unlikely it is that Russia would ever cede Crimea, I think Ukraine has a chance here to get out of a lot of problems and instead being able to focus on peaceful economic integration with Europe. Having said that, I am almost certain that Ukraine will reject these terms and instead settle for a long war of attrition. While I believe that Ukraine may ultimately prevail in that fight, it will come at immense human cost with the continuous risk of triggering a war that could end all our futures. As much as I get that Russia is the bad guy here, I cannot really see the point in taking such existential risks for the political control of territories that do not really want to belong to Ukraine in the first place.